Speaking for myself here, I sure know I’d love to put this previous blow-torch of a winter (if you can even call that a winter) behind us…and start looking forward to what hopefully will be a much better (colder and snowier) winter to come. As with everything, nothing is ever certain until it happens, but after looking at quite a bit of data over the past month, the tropical pacific would appear to be in transition to either a Negative Neutral to La Nina state. A La Nina by next winter actually seems like a good bet at this point. One good piece of evidence would be the Nino 3.4 region SST outlook. It shows a rapid fall off of 3.4 region SST’s, and if it were to verify, would put us in La Nina territory by July.
This chart, along with the rising and recently sustained positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (good for enhancing NINA conditions in the equatorial pacific), continuously dropping PDO, and cooling of the Nino regions, all combine to help forecasters lean one way or the other when looking ahead. As of right now, things are definitely looking good for us. One thing’s for sure… it can’t get any worse than this past winter, one in which Sea-tac recorded ZERO inches of snowfall! Sea-tac has never had two consecutive winters with no recorded snowfall, so we’ve got history on our side in that regard! So keep those fingers crossed, we’ll keep you posted on any updates to come in the near future.
Bryant (aka TheNewBigMack)
