La Nina in store for 2010-2011 winter?

Speaking for myself here, I sure know I’d love to put this previous blow-torch of a winter (if you can even call that a winter) behind us…and start looking forward to what hopefully will be a much better (colder and snowier) winter to come. As with everything, nothing is ever certain until it happens, but after looking at quite a bit of data over the past month, the tropical pacific would appear to be in transition to either a Negative Neutral to La Nina state. A La Nina by next winter actually seems like a good bet at this point. One good piece of evidence would be the Nino 3.4 region SST outlook. It shows a rapid fall off of 3.4 region SST’s, and if it were to verify, would put us in La Nina territory by July.

This chart, along with the rising and recently sustained positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (good for enhancing NINA conditions in the equatorial pacific), continuously dropping PDO, and cooling of the Nino regions, all combine to help forecasters  lean one way or the other when looking ahead. As of right now, things are definitely looking good for us. One thing’s for sure…  it can’t get any worse than this past winter, one in which Sea-tac recorded ZERO inches of  snowfall! Sea-tac has never had two consecutive winters with no recorded snowfall, so we’ve got history on our side in that regard! So keep those fingers crossed, we’ll keep you posted on any updates to come in the near future.

Bryant (aka TheNewBigMack)

Upper atmosphere… Current, and projected

Current shot of the upper atmosphere.

Projected shot of the upper atmosphere at 48 hours.

Winter-Like trough pegged to hit county in Early May

The first few days of this week may not feel all that cold, but in comparison to average, it’s going to be cold. An upper level trough, one that’s easily comparable to a trough that we typically see in the November through March period, will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska late Monday afternoon bringing a period of heavy rain and some gusty winds. That may seem typical for spring in the region, but the airmass behind the front is going to be as cold as it gets for this time of year. With clearing possible after the frontal passive on tuesday night, we could be looking at all time record lows for the month of may in the county. Bellingham’s record lows around this time of year are right around freezing, and with any luck, we’ll rival those records. We’ll keep you up to date as this event nears.

Brennan